Their research, based on advanced statistical techniques, shows that current world records are already exceptional and may barely be improved upon.

The 100-meter sprint is one of the most iconic events in athletics. Think of stars like Usain Bolt or the new young sensation Christian Miller. But how close are we to the absolute limit of human speed? Mathematicians John Einmahl and Yi He can use new methods and expanded datasets to make a highly precise estimate of the ultimate world records for the 100-meter sprint.

A new statistical approach

Instead of extrapolating trends in world records, the researchers use a method based on 'heterogeneous extreme value statistics.' This statistical model focuses on the most exceptional performances within a population and provides a robust way to determine the absolute limits of human speed.

John Einmahl: ‘We analyzed thousands of performances by elite athletes between 1991 and 2023. We didn’t just include personal bests but also multiple fast times per athlete, allowing us to significantly expand the dataset. The core idea is that every athlete has a theoretical best possible time. The ultimate world record is then determined as the lowest boundary of these theoretical times across all top athletes.’

Estimates for the ultimate world records

For men, Einmahl and He estimate the ultimate world record at 9.56 seconds. Additionally, they calculated that 9.49 seconds is a conservative lower bound with 95% confidence. This means that it is highly unlikely that a human will run faster than 9.49 seconds anytime soon. Remarkably, this is only fractions of a second below the current world record of 9.58 seconds, set by Usain Bolt in 2009.

For women, the ultimate record is estimated at 10.34 seconds, with a conservative lower bound of 10.20 seconds. This suggests there is still some room to improve on the current world record of 10.49 seconds, set by Florence Griffith Joyner in 1988. Unlike the men’s record, which may already be near its limit, the women’s record still allows for some improvement.

Exceptional records

Yi He: ‘Our results confirm that the current world records are exceptional and that the margins for improvement are small, but improvement is still possible. For now, it appears that Usain Bolt and Florence Griffith Joyner were indeed groundbreaking athletes who performed close to the absolute maximum of human speed.’

Publication details

John Einmahl en Yi He: ‘Accurate Estimates of Ultimate 100-Meter Records’ (CentER Discussion Paper; Vol. 2025-002), 11 februari 2025. Doi: 10.48550/arXiv.2502.04085.

More information

For more information and interview requests, please contact Yi He (y.he2@uva.nl), John Einmahl (j.h.j.einmahl@tilburguniversity.edu) or science communication advisor Lieke Steijvers (l.m.steijvers@tilburguniversity.edu).