The paper When the Great Equalizer Shuts Down: Schools, Peers, and Parents in Pandemic Times explores whether the pandemic will have a lasting effect on children of the ‘COVID-19 generation’ who have to be learn through homeschooling. Their research explores the relevant factors and interactions between parents, peers and schools.

Model-based forecast

Due to the absence of historically comparable situations, the researchers decided to use models to forecast the effects of the pandemic on children’s education and future prospects. The first step was to determine the skills children had acquired in pre-pandemic times. Next, the researchers captured the impact of COVID-19 by analysing temporary changes brought about by the pandemic with regard to schooling, contact with peers and the role played by parents. Finally, this model was used to forecast the effects of the pandemic on children’s education and future prospects.

Findings

The quantitative model predicts ‘a significant widening of educational inequality during the crisis’. The largest losses are experienced by the children of families in the lowest 20% income bracket, while children in families in the highest 20% income bracket were unaffected. The ability of parents to teach the subject matter at home, and access to work spaces and IT resources are among the factors that account for this education gap.

Response

The forecast indicates that a policy response is needed. The study points at policies that may be used to prevent some of the learning losses and widening educational inequality that the pandemic threatens to bring about. The question remains if the learning gap will diminish once schools reopen, or if the consequences of the pandemic will permanently mark the COVID-19 generation.

A more detailed summary of the methodology and findings in this working paper co-authored by F. Agostinelli, M. Doepke, G. Sorrenti, and F. Zilibotti can be downloaded below.